How to predict the worst for Greece? Will house prices fall? Will the stock market fall? With 46 cases already diagnosed in Greece, what's the worst that can happen to the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in Greece?

As of 6 p.m. Greek time yesterday (March 6), 15 new cases had been reported in Greece, raising the number of confirmed cases to 46 people.

Is Greece on the verge of an outbreak of neococcal pneumonia?

Starting in March, China's response to thenew type of pneumoniaEpidemic prevention and control has reached an inflection point, with major cities and new cities successively meeting the criteria for resumption of work, including the Greek Embassy in China, which has also begun to accept visa applications for theGolden Visamarry sb. (of woman)Financial Independent Person, Greecehave been able to continue visiting Greece; however, countries such as South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan have becomenew type of pneumoniathe worst-hit areas of the epidemic, with the number of new confirmed cases in countries outside China exceeding that of China for 10 consecutive days.

Status of the European Union

Despite the measures taken by the Greek government, Greece's ability to recognize (suspected) infected persons entering the country has not improved, and the Greek public hospital system is up and running, but facing the dual challenge of a shortage of healthcare workers and medical materials, and is under extreme pressure, with a ninth case even occurring in the last few days.new type of pneumoniaOn March 2, the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) upgraded the risk level in the European Union from "low to moderate" to "moderate to high". 5 days have passed, and with the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in the European Union, I believe that the ECDC will soon upgrade the risk level from "moderate to high" to "high to very high". Five days later, with the outbreak of C. neoformans pneumonia in the EU, I believe that the CDC will soon revise the risk level from "moderate to high" to "high to very high".

Is there a new coronavirus outbreak in Greece?

As a result of our analysis, we believe that whether or not there will be a new coronavirus outbreak in Greece depends on four factors:

sinonew type of pneumoniaProgress in epidemic prevention and control;
Progress in prevention and control in other countries;
Greece's ability to recognize infected persons entering the country;
Greece's capacity to receive and treat infected persons.

Key factors in the prevention and control of the new Crown pneumonia disease repulsor in Greece

As a member of the European Union, the Greek epidemic not only depends on Greece's own progress in epidemic prevention and control, but is also directly affected by the epidemic in other EU countries. Italy, Germany, France, Spain and other EU countries have replaced China as the largest importer of the epidemic to Greece, in other words, as long as these EU countries'new type of pneumoniaGreece will not be able to stand alone until the epidemic is fundamentally under control. The Greek government and the Greek public health system are less able to cope than those of Italy, Germany, France, Spain and other European Union countries, and it is likely that the epidemic in these countries has been brought under control, while Greece is still in dire straits.

Worst-case scenario possible for Greece's new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak

Triggered political crisis and social unrest in Greece

This past week, the headlines in Greece were not about the new coronavirus outbreak, but about the influx of "refugees" who, with Turkey's "connivance", have been trying to illegally cross the Turkish-Greek border by the tens of thousands of refugees stranded in Turkey. They are entering Greece and the European Union. The impact and influence of the new coronavirus epidemic on Greece is localized and short-lived, but the impact and influence of the refugees on Greece is comprehensive, long-term and heavy:

Incidence (low)

20%

New type of pneumonia occurs in a vicious incident targeting the Chinese.

Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, China, there have been several incidents of discrimination against Chinese (Asians) in several countries around the world. Among European countries, Greece is considered to be the friendliest to the Chinese, but this does not stop the vicious incidents against them from being initiated, incited and led by a section of populists and anarchists.

Incidence (low)

30%

Chinese charter flights to flee Greece

According to my understanding, Greek Chinese are already discussing chartered flights back home. If there is a large outbreak in Greece, the situation in Greece will be similar to that in Italy, and the Chinese are worried.new type of pneumoniaThe spread of the epidemic and the choice to return to their home countries for "refuge".

Incidence (medium)

40%

Greek house prices go from up to down

In Greek urban areas, house prices rose by 9.32 percent by the third quarter of 2019, well above the previous year's growth of 2.35 percent and the highest annual annual increase since the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the Bank of Greece. After adjusting for inflation, home prices rose 9.39 percent. In the third quarter of 2019, home prices in urban areas increased by 2.23 percent year-over-year (3.46 percent in real terms).

Annual house prices in Athens rose by 11.91% (11.99% in real terms) in the third quarter of 2019, the capital's best performance since the second quarter of 2006. In the most recent quarter, house prices rose by 2.21% (3.43% in real terms).
Thessaloniki, the second largest city, saw housing prices increase by 8.52% year-on-year (8.59% in real terms) in the third quarter of 2019, a significant increase from last year's 1.32% year-on-year - the highest increase since the second quarter of 2007. , prices increased 0.7 percent in the third quarter of 2019 (1.9 percent in real terms).

If the Greek outbreak continues into mid-April

If the epidemic in Greece continues until mid-April, and in the middle of the vicious incidents against the Chinese, leading to a loss of confidence in Greece, and thus triggered more than two years of upward trend in housing prices came to an abrupt end and entered a downward channel.

Incidence (medium)

40%

Athens stock market plunges

In 2019, the Athens Stock Exchange's Athens Composite Index rose 49.65%, a global leader.Since 2020, the Athens Composite Index has fallen off a cliff. If the Greek epidemic continues into mid-April and investors sell and flee Greece based on risk aversion and other considerations, the Athens Composite is likely to fall another 20% - of course, if you're bullish on Greece, this is a buying opportunity.

Incidence (medium)

60%

Worried, trembling, unable to buy a mask

Ten days ago, protective items such as masks were no longer available in Athens pharmacies. In response to the epidemic, many governments have imposed controls on protective items such as masks, and it has become increasingly difficult to buy protective items not only in Greece, but also in other countries. With the worsening of the epidemic in Greece, the lack of protective items at home has led to a lot of anxiety and fear.

Incidence (high)

70%

Chinese infected

On the whole, the Chinese in Greece are very self-disciplined and have taken a series of protective measures, including active self-isolation and wearing masks, but this does not guarantee that the Chinese in Greece will not be infected. However, this does not guarantee that Chinese in Greece will not be infected. If there is an incident of Chinese being infected, it may not only cause confusion among Chinese in Greece, but also lead to prejudice against the Chinese community in Greek society, which will in turn affect the reputation and interests of the Chinese in Greece.

Incidence (high)

80%

The site of Hadrian's Ferry in northern Athens

Greece Golden Visa Immigration

new type of pneumoniaIn the global spread of rapid, Greece is located in the Schengen countries also lies in the Mediterranean Sea in a key position, it is difficult to completely block the invasion of the disease repellent, some of the more preserved areas in Athens, such as Kifissia (cf:How to buy a house in Greece to preserve its value? How to live in Athens' wealthy neighborhoods with the $250,000 'Golden Visa' program), Kolonaki, are some of the better local areas for long term real estate holdings. Of course, I hope that none of the above "projected" scenarios will happen, but good intentions don't stop bad things from happening. The only thing we can do in the face of a possible bad situation is to anticipate it, recognize it, face it and solve it.

(This post was written by HUO and revised by Bee)